Months of fear finally turned into reality this past week as Russian military forces joined with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, prompting investors to retreat from riskier equity positions and into safe-havens — like gold.
The COMEX gold price for December surged close to $1,300 after an $11.00 bounce yesterday. Spot gold prices were a near mirror, raising $10.90 to just shy of $1,295.00.
Experts have been split on gold this summer, with some wondering if hints that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates would spell doom for any gold rally. Gold (and silver, which saw gains as well) had been responding timidly to geo-political news for some time now.
But gold was always going to rise. Why? World markets aren’t healthy right now. The risk of global conflict is escalating. Governments are defaulting on sovereign debt. The United States has been printing money at reckless levels for a recklessly long time.
Investors need a better alternative.
World Markets Aren’t HealthyThe most peculiar element of the most recent Argentine default was that nobody seemed to know it was coming. Providing an extreme example of how political institutions cannot be trusted to make healthy financial decisions, this was at least the eighth sovereign debt default for the South American nation since its founding as an independent country.
Default might be a terrible short-term blow to the economy of Argentina, but it’s far preferable to the storm that the United States has been building up to ever since the latest recession.
Our Federal Reserve has been buying government bonds and pumping investment bankers with so much “funny money” that they’ve sown the seeds for an inflationary calamity. I think they know it too — it’s why they keep on finding new ways to convince financial institutions to park enormous reserves with the Fed rather than loan them out into the economy (the “Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements” mechanism is the latest central bank concoction).
They can’t undo what they’ve done, though. You can’t hand out trillions of dollars and then just take them back. In the short-run, the US dollar is safe, if only because the rest of the world is in so much trouble. In the long-run, no government currency is safe.
Global Conflict is EscalatingInvestors should be spooked; it seems like the world is stumbling into one conflict after another, and markets understand that more conflict leads to uncertainty, government spending and wealth destruction.
The Middle East produces one mess after another: Israel is pushing into Gaza; ISIS is threatening cities and oil supplies all over Iraq; Syria is, well, Syria. It seems more and more likely that the United States is getting closer to entering the game on a larger scale. It’s a quagmire that makes markets nervous.
Vladimir Putin has had his eyes fixed on Ukraine and nothing that the United States or the United Nations are doing is slowing him down. The Malaysian Airlines tragedy is what grabbed headlines, but Russian control of Ukrainian oil pipelines and agricultural production is what European leaders fear. Putin would have a chokehold on the European economy.
On the homefront, tensions keep rising in Missouri over the violent militarism that is the modern American police force. The border with Mexico remains a sieve. The U.S. government has lost the ability to protect its citizens either financially or physically.
It’s up to individuals to protect themselves.
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Adding gold to a retirement plan isn’t always simple. Many 401(k) plans do not offer a precious metals fund, so you’ll likely need a plan of action for incorporating gold into your 401(k) outside of your typical range of mutual fund options.
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